Whither weather

Temporary Relief? Mild November Weather Could Alleviate EU Gas Crisis

It used to be that human welfare depended heavily on good weather. Which way the wind blew, and how much the sun shone were existential conditions.

Now that the EU is dependent on wind and solar energy, they’re back to hoping for mild winters so they don’t freeze in the dark.

You might say they are dependent on global warming. And Russia, of course.

China Syndrome

Think again, sweetie. The UK is running out of coal.
UK Readying New Law Mandating Home EV Chargers Be Shut Down During Peak Hours

Turns out the China Syndrome is coal fired power plants, not the nuclear plant meltdown the Greens told us it was. #Greenfail.

“In 2019, 58 percent of the country’s total energy consumption came from coal, which helps explain why China accounts for 28 percent of all global CO2 emissions.”

And it’s going to get worse for the warm mongers. China Dominates 2020 Coal Plant Development

Deworming Rolling Stone

Rolling Stone describes ivermectin as a “horse dewormer” despite 35 years of primarily human treatment.
Rolling Stone Issues ‘Update’ After Horse Dewormer Hit-Piece Debunked

How did curiosity about potential drugs for CCP virus prophylaxis become so politicized that stupendously obvious lies are a journalistic norm? And defending the lies a rite of passage?

Joe Rogan must be suppressed because of ‘Progressives’ need for control and status? Because he is dangerously popular and might encourage narrative questioning? And because this sort of distortion gets clicks for RS from the elect, elite, anointed cadre wannabes who represent its shrinking audience?

Ivermectin, according to the National Center for Biotechnology Information, is a wonder drug on the order of penicillin and aspirin:

…ideal in combating two of the world’s most devastating and disfiguring diseases which have plagued the world’s poor throughout the tropics for centuries. It is now being used free-of-charge as the sole tool in campaigns to eliminate both diseases globally. It has also been used to successfully overcome several other human diseases and new uses for it are continually being found…

There are few drugs that can seriously lay claim to the title of ‘Wonder drug’, penicillin and aspirin being two that have perhaps had greatest beneficial impact on the health and wellbeing of Mankind. But ivermectin can also be considered alongside those worthy contenders, based on its versatility, safety and the beneficial impact that it has had, and continues to have, worldwide—especially on hundreds of millions of the world’s poorest people.

The world’s horse population may be around 60 million: Ivermectin is primarily a human drug, unless those horses are each being dosed… very frequently.

And ivermectin is less dangerous to humans than omeprazole (Prilosec), another human drug used in horses. As are most all drugs given to horses. Should omeprazole be called “horse gastritis preventer?” After all, the NCBI speculates that omeprazole could have a role in CCP virus treatment.

RS doesn’t even have enough respect for their audience to use a stock “people queued up” photo appropriate to the season. Which is probably fair enough for people convinced no one but them can understand the words “proper dosage.”

These are same nanny-statists who think no-fly lists are appropriate for unvaccinated American citizens; and simultaneously excuse spewing illegal aliens country-wide without testing for CCP virus. Where’s Biden’s “infrastructure project” to at least force the illegals to mask up?

Aside from sheer perversity in forcing others to wear masks and the smug satisfaction they find in pretending only they “follow the science,” they also see an opportunity to impoverish humans in the name of Gaia – as noted in this Nature article. It’s the same shit sandwich, on slightly different bread.

Making every day “Earth Day.” AKA, “Energy Poverty Day.” It’s virtue beaconing.

We haven’t built the nukes that would have solved their CO2 problem because they wouldn’t allow it. Having precipitated the problem, their “solution” is for the rest of us to freeze in the dark or bake in the sun; drying clothes and cooking on their schedule. I think we can be sure this only applies to flyover country.

They won’t be applying the carbon allowance to air conditioning in DC any time soon. No, there will be conditions. Those people have to be kept comfortable enough to plot the Afghanistan withdrawal, and the next phase of money printing.

Meanwhile, here in Michigan, Consumers Energy offers incentives to reduce the 50% summer surtax they’ve imposed on electricity between 2PM and 7PM because their windmills and solar panels are inadequate, and because they’ve decommissioned some nuclear plants. Control my thermostat? Two words.

A Republic, if you can keep it

Embed from Getty Images
Things you won’t see this Independence Day: Fireworks at Mount Rushmore.

Ostensibly, because of a fire hazard caused by the Mountain Pine Beetle.

But mostly it’s about envirostatism and identity politics.

Now, I don’t know how serious the beetle problem actually is, but I do know the Feds have been working on it since 2010, there were fireworks last year without incident, and Governor Kristi Noem believes they are safe. But Progressives don’t like Noem, and won’t waste a chance to reinforce the Native American land rights they use to block oil pipelines.

Many domestic concerns – the threat of inflation, teaching Critical Race Theory in government schools, burgeoning corporatist censorship, soaring crime, the transgender attack on women, and abandonment of oil independence push fireworks in South Dakota well down the list.

Then again, just last year, inflation, CRT, state directed private censorship, crime rates, high school track events where men compete with women, and oil independence were not so high up the list.

The fireworks ban is a small player in the “fundamental transformation” of the United States. It’s not about trees killed by pine beetles raising fire risk. It’s a psy-op vandalizing our regard for Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, Old Glory, free markets, and individualism. It is just one more identitarian attack.

There are many bonuses for the Progressives. It reverses a Trump decision last year to allow the fireworks, and sticks it to South Dakota tourism – a state which had the temerity to elect a Republican Governor. So it checks the orange-man-bad box. It checks the race box since the pine beetles are on Indian land. Which means it checks the colonialist box. It draws support from envirostatists, who are well organized in SD to oppose oil pipelines. So it checks the climate change box. It checks the corporatist censorship box repeatedly: Where have you seen a guy who looks like the guy at the beginning of this video? SD ACLU files First Amendment lawsuit against KXL protest bill

Last time he was on national television we saw him beating a drum in Nick Sandmann’s face. Then lying about it; lies which sent the MSM into paroxysms of screaming “racist!” at Sandmann and calling him “punchable.”

It was made clear on video that Phillips was lying about the facts. A Year Ago, the Media Mangled the Covington Catholic Story. What Happened Next Was Even Worse.

And since he’s a face of “the movement,” it’s worth looking at his past behavior to evaluate his immediate allies as well as credulous fellow travelers like MSNBC, CNN, and the WaPo engaging in outrage-mongering, propagandist clickbait. Which was Phillips’ purpose. Still is.

If you want to gather to watch a National fireworks show, you are left with the White House. Where the beetles are of the Scarabaeinae subfamily and where you can’t criticize China or the click-bait artists will deem you racist.

So, celebrate the Founding of The United States of America, in the fashion you choose, as free citizens of the Republic. We can keep it.

The Happerning

Hillsdale College – National Leadership Symposium.
Address by William Happer,
Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics, Emeritus – Princeton
How to Think About Climate Change
56 minutes (1.25 speed works)

That link is to Watt’s Up With That? because the YouTube version has a “Climate Change” “fact check” disclaimer from WikiTedia appended, and I cannot find the lecture on Hillsdale’s site. WUWT deserves a hat tip, in any case.

On the off chance that you won’t autonomically watch the whole thing based on my recommendation, at least check this 2 minutes out.

It’s the next to last question of the Q&A. It’s a core question. Any catastrophist who watches this, if they have half a clue about their own position, will bring it up. If they don’t have that clue, they’re likely to make some ad hominem objection. You’ve been warned.

Happer set the stage for how one must think about CO2 “forcing” to design climate models politically acceptable to the IPCC, but did not address it in his lecture.

I noted the rigor of those IPCC models, and the quality of the data, in December 2009: Prometheus unbound

All the models admit that CO2 alone CANNOT cause the predicted apocalypse. So, CO2 must have secondary catastrophic consequences. All the models take this as given.

It’s the “forcing” assumption: A little bit of warming from CO2 will cause increases in water vapor (by orders of magnitude the most important greenhouse gas). Atmospheric carbon dioxide iteratively “forces” more and more water vapor – creating a feedback loop that fries the planet.

Clouds are part of that “water cycle.” But they aren’t part of the modeling. The modeling that depends on a particular prediction about the water cycle: NASA: We Can’t Model Clouds, So Climate Model Projections Are 100x Less Accurate [than is required for policy decisions]

“Because the uncertainties are so pervasive, NASA concludes that “today’s models must be improved by about a hundredfold in accuracy” if we wish to make climate projections.”

Clouds. They cannot say within 1% certainty that the models’ “forcing” policies of immiseration upon us can be used to support those policies.

TOC noted this 15 years ago.
Science tempers fears on climate change
Posted on September 4, 2006
The link in that has rotted, but I’m sure a copy of the Kyoto ‘Treaty’ is out there on the InterTubes.

I’ve looked at clouds from no sides now…
Posted on June 30, 2007
The first link in that has rotted, but the second one has not. Note “water cycle” – of which clouds are but one phenomenon unknown to IPCC “science.” That’s where the title of the post came from.

Give us $, or the trees get it!


The Massachusetts Audubon Society runs a scam popularized by National Lampoon in 1973.

The Massachusetts Audubon Society has long managed its land in western Massachusetts as crucial wildlife habitat… But in 2015, the conservation nonprofit presented California’s top climate regulator with a startling scenario: It could heavily log 9,700 acres of its preserved forests over the next few years. The group raised the possibility of chopping down hundreds of thousands of trees as part of its application to take part in California’s forest offset program.

The program allows forest owners like Mass Audubon to earn so-called carbon credits for preserving trees. Each credit represents a ton of CO2. California polluters … buy these credits so that they can emit more CO2 than they’d otherwise be allowed to under state law. … The Air Resources Board accepted Mass Audubon’s project into its program, requiring the nonprofit to preserve its forests over the next century instead of heavily logging them. The nonprofit received more than 600,000 credits in exchange for its promise. The vast majority were sold through intermediaries to oil and gas companies, records show. … The fossil fuel companies were able to emit more CO2 while abiding by California’s climate laws.

Disgusting.

‘Climate’ policy ignores weather at its peril

In rain and wind and sleet and snow, the power is out in your bungalow.

Excellent analysis. RTWT.
Assigning Blame for the Blackouts in Texas | Climate Etc.

“Extreme cold should be expected to cause significant outages of both renewable and fossil fuel based resources. Why would anyone expect that sufficient amounts of natural gas would be available and deliverable to supply much needed generation? Considering the extreme cold, nothing particularly surprising is happening within any resource class in Texas. The technologies and their performance were well within the expected bounds of what could have been foreseen for such weather conditions. While some degradation should be expected, what is happening in Texas is a departure from what they should be experiencing. Who or what then is responsible for the shocking consequences produced by Texas’s run in with this recent bout of extreme cold?…

Traditionally, responsibility for ensuring adequate capacity during extreme conditions has fallen upon individual utility providers. A couple decades ago I was responsible for the load forecasting, transmission planning and generation planning efforts of an electric cooperative in the southeastern US. My group’s projections, studies and analysis supported our plans to meet customer demand under forecasted peak load conditions. We had seen considerable growth in residential and commercial heat pumps. At colder temperature these units stop producing heat efficiently and switch to resistance heating which causes a spike in demand. Our forecasts showed that we would need to plan for extra capacity to meet this potential demand under extreme conditions in upcoming winters.”

Debate is raging over which form of power generation was the proximate cause of the Texas power fiasco. Bill Gates is arguing with Greg Abbot; the MSM publishes articles alternately excusing windmills and blaming natural gas. There’s chatter about failure of the free market.

Forget all that. Yes, more solar panels and more windmills would have made it worse, but nuclear plants shut down when cooling pumps froze (go figure), and natural gas more or less ran out. Gas prices soared 10,000%.

Texas power generation failed because of central planning. Intermittent energy generation was favored over energy capacity. CO2 reduction became more important than reliability. The system was robust until it wasn’t. Nassim Taleb’s books The Black Swan and Antifragile leap to mind.

Central planners knew reserve dispatchable (on demand) electricity provision was a weakness for renewables’ case, even as renewables raise the importance of dispatchable power. If planners wanted more renewable energy they had to raise electricity prices to fund building the standby generators and securing the fuel supplies they might not use, or take bigger risks across the board.

Wind and solar were not to be dinged for the increased costs they impose on the grid to ensure reliable generating capacity during extreme weather events. Mustn’t have anyone question whether windmills or solar panels are doing the job you hired them for if you still have to have natural gas plants idling in case of bad weather.

Politicians are neither engineers nor risk managers. They see risk management as an electoral issue. Global warming is a vaguely apprehended future risk, but the present hype is concrete and assuaging it ‘virtuous.’ Weather caused power failure is concrete, but also mundane and inevitable. The need for dispatchable power, AKA the cost of mitigating the extreme weather risk, is directly proportional to the increase in renewable energy dependance. And inversely proportional to the direction of the political wind.

This is a tunnel vision application of the precautionary principle. The risk of a once in a lifetime weather event was judged to be less important than the risk of AlGore’s vision of a future flaming globe. You get votes by paying homage to the latter, and complaints about electricity cost if you mitigate the former.

This danger was not a Hayekian lack of information. The consequences had been clearly foreseen by well established risk analysis protocols, and papered over. The consequences were unintended only in the sense of “we didn’t want that to happen.” Some of the ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas) Board at least had the grace to fall on their swords.

ERCOT bet they wouldn’t have the weather, during THEIR terms, which they knew Texas would eventually experience.

Put differently, Warren Buffett invests in windmills because the economics are tilted by subsidies and pricing manipulation, not because he cares about providing affordable, reliable power.

*Yes, that would be regulation. In a free market we would long since have had contractual ways of doing this.