THE world’s top climate scientists have cut their worst-case forecast for global warming over the next 100 years.
You’d think that the Kyoto Treaty must be working, except that none of the signatories have met their goals of reducing carbon emissions. So how did we get a better worst-case forecast? “Better science.”
A draft report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, obtained exclusively by The Weekend Australian, offers a more certain projection of climate change than the body’s forecasts five years ago.
For the first time, scientists are confident enough to project a 3C rise on the average global daily temperature by the end of this century if no action is taken to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
The Draft Fourth Assessment Report says the temperature increase could be contained to 2C by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions are held at current levels.
In 2001, the scientists predicted temperature rises of between 1.4C and 5.8C on current levels by 2100, but better science has led them to adjust this to a narrower band of between 2C and 4.5C.
It is strange that they are “confident enough” “for the first time” to predict a 3 degree temperature rise, when their new scenario admits it could be 2 degrees. Which one is the “more certain” part? The number they obviously just pulled out of their keisters is that the temperature increase could be contained to 2 dgrees if greenhouse gas emissions are flat.
This is better science? Wake me when the science is “better” enough that the computer models they use in making these predictions can account for clouds.